Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.690723 4.036649 4.439739 4.955700 5.617769 6.470461 7.716145
2025-01-26 3.317450 3.764732 4.333466 5.149796 6.379362 8.378084 12.701507
2025-02-02 3.143540 3.663574 4.369840 5.485309 7.446761 11.686265 32.773635
2025-02-09 2.945461 3.485999 4.249585 5.532154 8.056286 15.177500 NaN
2025-02-16 2.801212 3.357138 4.168644 5.607537 8.767241 21.322846 NaN
2025-02-23 2.619460 3.153667 3.942955 5.371680 8.653089 24.261826 NaN
2025-03-02 2.519823 3.058256 3.871150 5.399482 9.230444 38.616462 NaN
2025-03-09 2.426125 2.962529 3.785849 5.380839 9.687458 78.661987 NaN
2025-03-16 2.320618 2.841180 3.645965 5.225975 9.643224 158.632201 NaN
2025-03-23 2.280394 2.814731 3.659556 5.390317 10.841808 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.183109 2.694916 3.504339 5.163452 10.397467 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.089901 2.577389 3.346307 4.914328 9.786793 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.019543 2.495066 3.248839 4.800797 9.762411 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.998533 2.487903 3.280289 4.981960 11.205760 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.994636 2.506755 3.358714 5.293931 14.030358 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.956638 2.468803 3.330670 5.337364 15.429280 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.924441 2.438348 3.313718 5.407193 17.413419 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.862740 2.357299 3.196725 5.188450 16.157932 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.831599 2.324929 3.169720 5.214275 17.718245 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.797920 2.286929 3.129445 5.196958 18.898035 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.753157 2.229115 3.048201 5.052928 18.130308 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.741121 2.224680 3.068967 5.205763 22.596587 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.694092 2.160590 2.970639 4.994684 20.043100 NaN NaN